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If I Were Rich…

December 1st, 2009

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If you were rich, would you buy a huge, expensive house? Would you spend $39 million on a house?

I did a search for the most expensive home on the market in Washington DC, and came up with 1623 28TH ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20007. The asking price is $39,500,000. I have a lot of questions…

How do you come up with that asking price? Are there really comparable sales that can support a price of $39,500,000? Or are you pricing it to sell to a developer, and estimating the value as a developer would? Read the rest of this entry »

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Housing Prices Falling, Flat or Floating Up?

November 16th, 2009

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So where are housing prices going next? Everyone has an opinion, most based on emotion as opposed to facts. The facts are that real estate is local. If the state of Florida's residential real estate is down 16% year over year, that does not mean that every house in the state of Florida went down exactly 16%. There may even be homes in the state of Florida where there is no price decrease year over year, and maybe even an increase! So always do your homework before stating an opinion about real estate.

A recent headline said, "National home prices are forecast to shrink another 11%. Read the rest of this entry »

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Reversion To The Mean

September 7th, 2009

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We can have a "reversion to the mean" discussion on real estate, stocks, or just about anything. What is Reversion to the Mean? This is a theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back to the mean or average.

If you want to be a successful investor of common stocks conventional wisdom says you should spend lots of time analyzing companies or mutual fund managers and then try to pick the best ones. That is fine, but is a mistake if you are solely relying on that. If you want to be a successful investor of common stocks forget about using solely conventional wisdom, and also focus on reversion to the mean. You can be lucky and pick stocks and mutual funds without doing a lot of analysis. Or you can build a diversified portfolio with a clear understanding of the role that reversion to the mean plays in the stock market. And this also holds true in the real estate market and with many other things. Don't rely solely on professionals, do your own research on the house or assets you may want to buy. Read the rest of this entry »

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Is It Time To Buy A House?

September 7th, 2009

Housing market collapse

Isn't it always a good time to buy real estate? There are hardly any Realtors, builders or other industry participants who have ever said it is NOT a good time to buy real estate. There are some very good Realtors and builders, I know many, but let's not forget these people are ultimately salespeople, not investment analysts equipped with the tools to know the real value and direction of real estate. You hire a Realtor to help you buy and sell real estate, but you should make your own determination as to when is the best time to do so. So that means you are left to your own devices as to determining if real estate is a good investment.

We have to discern if we are talking about buying a primary residence or investment property. Since buying investment property is a simple cash flow numbers analysis, I'll restrict this blog post to buying a primary residence. And when buying a primary residence your first concern should not be if it is a good 'investment'. You should not go into it looking for investment returns. It is a home, shelter, a place to live, sleep, entertain, raise a family, and enjoy the community and neighbors. But you do want to make a careful decision and get the best possible financial gain from your home that you can. Read the rest of this entry »

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