2012 Predictions

January 9th, 2012

2011 was a difficult year in the mortgage business. We are all still standing, and you can still get mortgages, but it is not fun. I would like to make some 2012 mortgage predictions:

1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will raise the down payment requirement for investor loans from 20% down payment to 25% down payment.

2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will raise the equity requirement for investor refinance loans from 25% to 30%.

3. The incumbent Democratic President will win re-election, but the Republicans will take back the Senate, further housing policy stalemates will ensue.

4. People will cancel their cable TV subscriptions in droves, and will replace it with a TV antenna for local channels, and various internet fed entertainment like Hulu, Netflix, AppleTV, etc. How is this related to the mortgage business? It is not.

5. Apple without Steve Jobs will still be Apple, but we’ll all miss him. How is this related to the mortgage business? It is not.

6. Local, State and National governments the world over will realize they took it too far, and now can’t pay it back. The inevitable downsizing will follow. How is this related to the mortgage business? Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are controlled by the government now, government’s role in mortgages will change as a result. It may grow, or it may recede, but it will change.

7. Interest rates will be about the same all year, they may rise a small amount. Good news in that mortgage money will remain cheap!

8. Obtaining a mortgage will remain a messy proposition, but not impossible. Patience is rewarded. High loan-to-value loans are still available, don’t be shy.

9. A Republican controlled Senate and House will not do away with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they will not pass the Conforming High Balance loan limits of $625,500 into 2013. 2012 will be the last year for these loans from $417,001 to $625,500. Get em while their hot.

10. I will narrowly avoid quitting my job to go sell tacos out of a roadside truck, and will decide to stick around, and continue to do mortgages since its all I know.

Have a great 2012 everyone!

Brian Martucci is a loan officer for Capital Bank Home Loans, a division of Capital Bank, N.A. He has been in the mortgage industry since 1986 and has served in a number of roles, including loan processor, loan officer, mortgage broker, branch manager, and vice president. Brian Martucci – NMLS# 185421. His opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Capital Bank Home Loans or Capital Bank. Capital Bank, N.A.- NMLS# 401599. Click here for the Capital Bank, N.A. “Privacy Policy”.

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6 Responses to “2012 Predictions”

  1. Bob O'Toole says:

    Redskins will win 4 games
    Wizzards will win 4 games
    Caps will lose first round playoff in 4 games
    Nats will make wildcard playoff & lose in 4 games
    Obama will stay in town 4 more years….
    The power of 4…maybe I’m on to something????

  2. brianm says:

    Bob, I think you are on to something. Your insight is clearly accurate with sports. I am certain the Skins will be in for another sub 500 season. I hear they are thinking of bringing back Fran Tarkenton to quarterback next year. I say bring back Sonny Jurgensen! Maybe Billy Kilmer. They can’t be worse than any of the other washed up stars they are trying to use in the last few years.

  3. Rob says:

    Interesting predictions, but stay away from the roadside truck business… 😉

  4. brianm says:

    That is what I heard, I have some friends who have been on the inside of that business 🙂 Hard work….

  5. Carter says:

    Not so sure about your presidential-election prediction, stick with what you know.

  6. brianm says:

    Aw come on now Carter, don’t be a hater. Let me have my 1st amendment rights. Anyway, I did not say I endorse the current President. I am a bit of a Libertarian, I have not been a 100% fan of any President in a loooong time. I think there are big problems on both the left and the right. But you have to admit, the field of candidates the Republicans currently have are pretty weak. But as usual, whomever wins the nomination the Republicans will all get behind, and pretend he is the greatest thing since sliced bread, and this alleged great candidate may go down like John McCain did in 2008. Put another way, I think the current President is easily able to be defeated, but not by this current crop of Republican candidates. In my humble opinion….

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