Bond Market Report

April 21st, 2019
bond market report

 

The 10 Year Treasury Bond is at 2.56% as of last Friday. This is about the same as the last time I posted 10 Year Treasury Bond data in early January.

On 01-03-2019 the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.55%.

The direction of the 10 Year Treasury Bond is a good gauge on where mortgage rates are going. While it is not an exact measure, the 10 Year Treasury Bond is one of the best things to follow to determine the general direction of mortgage rates. So the above means interest rates are about the same now as they were early in the year.

And below are some interesting historical numbers*:

In 2018 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.91%.

In 2017 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.33%.

In 2007 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 4.63%.

In 1997 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 6.35%.

In 1987 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 7.18%.

In 1977 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 7.42%.

Where are the 10 Year Treasury Bond, and more importantly mortgage rates, headed next? Check back here to see!

 

*The source for these numbers comes from: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

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Bond Market Report

January 4th, 2019
bond market report

 

I am going to post numbers on the 10 Year Treasury Bond on a regular basis. The direction of the 10 Year Treasury Bond is a good gauge on where mortgage rates are going. While it is not an exact measure, the 10 Year Treasury Bond is one of the best things to follow to determine the general direction of mortgage rates.

 

As of 01-03-2019 the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.55%.

 

Below are some interesting numbers*:

In 2018 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.91%.

In 2017 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.33%. Read the rest of this entry »

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No cost refinancing a.k.a. no cost refi

January 2nd, 2018

No cost refinancing, does it exist?

I frequently have people ask me for “one of those no-cost refi’s”. Some people think that mortgage lenders are so hard up for business that they are willing to lose money and simply pay the closing costs for the mortgage borrower. I don’t know of any businesses where losing money is part of the process of making money. A no-cost refi actually comes with a cost…a higher interest rate.

The reality is that a no-cost refi is one where the closing costs are built into a higher interest rate. Read the rest of this entry »

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How A Mortgage Calculator Can Keep You Out of Trouble

July 28th, 2016

brian-martucci-get-loans-best-mortgage-calculator-help

If you type “Mortgage Calculators” into Google you will get over 2 million results and Google’s simple mortgage calculator at the top. The Google mortgage calculator will give you a rough idea of mortgage monthly payments based on a simple calculation of the interest rate and mortgage term. It doesn’t answer any details, like: how many payments do I have to pay in order to pay off my mortgage? In 15 years how much mortgage will I have left to pay if I increase my monthly mortgage payment? What happens if you want to increase or decrease the interest rate, or change the amount of years of your home loan? With all the mortgage loan calculators out there isn’t it best when you can see the big picture of your home loan payment and how it can work for you. Read the rest of this entry »

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Mortgage Backed Securities MARKET UPDATE

January 24th, 2013

I wanted to share today’s update from MBS Online, which is the service that I use that tracks mortgage-backed securities, which is the best gauge of what the interest-rate market is doing. Here is this morning’s update:

“Stronger than expected labor market data hurt MBS this morning. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 330K, below the consensus of 360K, and the lowest level since January 2008. This marks the second straight week that Jobless Claims were below the 350K level, which may signal that stronger Employment gains will be seen. The Dow is up 50 points. Leading Indicators will be released at 10:00 ET.”

My take on this is that this is one more slight signal that puts the bond market and mortgage-backed securities under pressure, and is another small bit of data that has helped to push up interest rates lately.

The 10 Year T-Bond has jumped from 1.83% yesterday to 1.86% this morning. For mortgage consumers this can mean a slight increase in points, but not necessarily rates, or if the negative news continues then rates may increase 1/8%.

AFTERNOON UPDATE: “MBS are down -10/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 104.02), around 6/32 below morning levels, and at the low for the day. Unfavorable repricing took place. Stronger than expected Jobless Claims data caused MBS to move lower today. Manufacturing data in Europe and China also exceeded expectations. Leading Indicators rose 0.5%, matching the consensus. The Dow is up 50 points. The S&P 500 index crossed above the 1,500 level for the first time since December 2007. Tomorrow, New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 ET.”

Keep your eye on this blog for more news soon, but this seems to be the year that many people think that interest rates will rise. Let’s see if the news and the data cause that to happen.

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Interest Rates Went Up This Week, About 1/4%!

January 4th, 2013

Interest rates went up this week, about 0.25% to 0.375%, depending on the type of loan. Below are some details from a bond market service I use (called MBSQuoteLine) that sends me news on the bond market, which is the biggest driver of the direction of interest rates, on why this rate increase happened.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher

Read the rest of this entry »

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The Latest On The Bond Market

December 18th, 2012

Below is a copy of some data I received from a bond market data service I use. It reports on bond market news several times daily. It helps me get a gauge on which way interest rates may go for the day and in general. I wanted to paste a recent email they sent me, and in parentheses and in CAPS give you my interpretation. Below is the data with my comments. Read the rest of this entry »

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They Go Down Forever!

July 16th, 2012

Rates appear to be going down forever. There is no end to how low they can go, is there? Of course there is. And I find consumers have gotten used to not only low rates, but the fact that they will keep dropping. So they procrastinate and put off refinancing because rates will be lower tomorrow. But they may not. Rates can only go so low, we are at the lowest point for rates in our country. But the weak economy not only produces low rates, it produces doubt and fear. There will also be a point where debt issuers will wonder if they’ll be repaid, and they will slow down on debt issuance, which will push rates up. Consumers act as if there is an endless stream of people and institutions who will lend them money, there is not. And Read the rest of this entry »

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The Media Can Be Downright Silly

July 10th, 2012

The media causes hysteria. It is what they are paid to do. As a newsperson you have to make something sound alarming, even if it is not, to attract eyeballs, to sell ad space. This is positively ridiculous, but I guess somehow the bills have to get paid, and in the news world, it is with ads and marketing. But it would be nice if consumers remembered this, and took a harder look at some news reports and applied a little logic. Below is a perfect example of something the media typically makes a mountain out of, when its barely a mole hill. Below is an example of an article that goes beyond the pale. Read the rest of this entry »

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