Bond Market Update

October 1st, 2026

Treasury Yield Near 52 Week High

10-01-2026 Bond Market Update

The bond market just closed. We went from 5.29% at the close yesterday, to 5.246% at today’s close. So a 4.4 basis points decline is very slight. There is no reason to be optimistic over this slight decline. As a reminder, the the 10 Year Treasury Bond was stuck in a long-term range between 3.6% and 3.9% for what seems like over a year until the last couple of months.

Bond Market Update – Predictions

A friend told me that Scott Bessent, United States Secretary of the Treasury, was going to manipulate things to bring bonds down, and hopefully bring long-term rates down, like mortgage rates. He even said “bond prices will collapse”.

I asked him if today’s 4.4 basis point decline was the big “collapse”? Apparently ordinary market movement now qualifies as proof that Bessent controls the entire bond market. Incredible. Next time the ocean rises or falls, I’ll credit him with controlling the tides. He’s like Poseidon and Neptune all rolled into one!
But somehow despite Bessent’s best efforts, we’re near the highs for the last week, and for the year. So back to reality.

Bond Market Update – Reality

The bond market is controlled by millions of investors, and bond prices are driven by the market and the economy. There might be some things that the government can do in the interim to move things around a little bit, but in the long run, bnd prices will do what they are going to do.
I believe due to government spending, the tariff or, and what’s going on in Iran, which affects oil and gas prices, bonds and rates will continue to go higher. Stay tuned for what happens next.
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Brian Martucci is a loan officer for Capital Bank Home Loans, a division of Capital Bank, N.A. He has been in the mortgage industry since 1986 and has served in a number of roles, including loan processor, loan officer, mortgage broker, branch manager, and vice president. Brian Martucci – NMLS# 185421. His opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Capital Bank Home Loans or Capital Bank. Capital Bank, N.A.- NMLS# 401599. Click here for the Capital Bank, N.A. “Privacy Policy”.​

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 1st, 2026 at 5:29 pm and is filed under Bond Market, interest rates, mortgage. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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