Latest Bond Market Report

June 16th, 2019
bond market report

The 10 Year Treasury Bond was at 2.08% as of last Friday*. This is the lowest it has been in a long time.

QUESTION: But what does this mean for mortgage rates?

ANSWER: In general, mortgage rates are flat recently, but down over the last few months.

QUESTION: Do mortgage rates rise and fall in lockstep with the 10 Year Treasury Bond?

ANSWER: No.

QUESTION: What variables affect mortgage rate quotes.

ANSWER: Loan size, loan type, property type, credit score, down payment, debt ratios, and more.

 

Where are the 10 Year Treasury Bond, and more importantly mortgage rates, headed next? Check back here to see!

 

*The source for the 10 Year Treasury Bond quote comes from here: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

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Bond Market Report

April 21st, 2019
bond market report

 

The 10 Year Treasury Bond is at 2.56% as of last Friday. This is about the same as the last time I posted 10 Year Treasury Bond data in early January.

On 01-03-2019 the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.55%.

The direction of the 10 Year Treasury Bond is a good gauge on where mortgage rates are going. While it is not an exact measure, the 10 Year Treasury Bond is one of the best things to follow to determine the general direction of mortgage rates. So the above means interest rates are about the same now as they were early in the year.

And below are some interesting historical numbers*:

In 2018 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.91%.

In 2017 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.33%.

In 2007 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 4.63%.

In 1997 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 6.35%.

In 1987 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 7.18%.

In 1977 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 7.42%.

Where are the 10 Year Treasury Bond, and more importantly mortgage rates, headed next? Check back here to see!

 

*The source for these numbers comes from: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

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Bond Market Report

January 4th, 2019
bond market report

 

I am going to post numbers on the 10 Year Treasury Bond on a regular basis. The direction of the 10 Year Treasury Bond is a good gauge on where mortgage rates are going. While it is not an exact measure, the 10 Year Treasury Bond is one of the best things to follow to determine the general direction of mortgage rates.

 

As of 01-03-2019 the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.55%.

 

Below are some interesting numbers*:

In 2018 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.91%.

In 2017 the average yield of the 10 Year Treasury Bond was 2.33%. Read the rest of this entry »

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Good News For Stocks Is Bad News For Bonds/Rates

January 25th, 2013

It looks like rates are edging up today, again. Here is this morning’s bond market update from MBS Online:

“MBS are down -13/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 103.23), around 16/32 lower than yesterday at this time. Unfavorable repricing took place yesterday. Early investors may have priced at levels as high as -10/32.

Global investors have continued to shift to riskier assets today, pushing major US stock indexes to multi-year highs, and hurting bonds. Stronger than expected economic news from Europe was the main influence today. MBS prices have dropped to levels last seen in September. The Dow is up 50 points. New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 ET.” Read the rest of this entry »

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Mortgage Backed Securities MARKET UPDATE

January 24th, 2013

I wanted to share today’s update from MBS Online, which is the service that I use that tracks mortgage-backed securities, which is the best gauge of what the interest-rate market is doing. Here is this morning’s update:

“Stronger than expected labor market data hurt MBS this morning. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 330K, below the consensus of 360K, and the lowest level since January 2008. This marks the second straight week that Jobless Claims were below the 350K level, which may signal that stronger Employment gains will be seen. The Dow is up 50 points. Leading Indicators will be released at 10:00 ET.”

My take on this is that this is one more slight signal that puts the bond market and mortgage-backed securities under pressure, and is another small bit of data that has helped to push up interest rates lately.

The 10 Year T-Bond has jumped from 1.83% yesterday to 1.86% this morning. For mortgage consumers this can mean a slight increase in points, but not necessarily rates, or if the negative news continues then rates may increase 1/8%.

AFTERNOON UPDATE: “MBS are down -10/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 104.02), around 6/32 below morning levels, and at the low for the day. Unfavorable repricing took place. Stronger than expected Jobless Claims data caused MBS to move lower today. Manufacturing data in Europe and China also exceeded expectations. Leading Indicators rose 0.5%, matching the consensus. The Dow is up 50 points. The S&P 500 index crossed above the 1,500 level for the first time since December 2007. Tomorrow, New Home Sales will be released at 10:00 ET.”

Keep your eye on this blog for more news soon, but this seems to be the year that many people think that interest rates will rise. Let’s see if the news and the data cause that to happen.

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Interest Rates Went Up This Week, About 1/4%!

January 4th, 2013

Interest rates went up this week, about 0.25% to 0.375%, depending on the type of loan. Below are some details from a bond market service I use (called MBSQuoteLine) that sends me news on the bond market, which is the biggest driver of the direction of interest rates, on why this rate increase happened.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher

Read the rest of this entry »

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The Latest On The Bond Market

December 18th, 2012

Below is a copy of some data I received from a bond market data service I use. It reports on bond market news several times daily. It helps me get a gauge on which way interest rates may go for the day and in general. I wanted to paste a recent email they sent me, and in parentheses and in CAPS give you my interpretation. Below is the data with my comments. Read the rest of this entry »

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